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2019 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds, picks, Playoffs predictions: Model says Kyle Larson surprises at South Point 400

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Las Vegas Motor Speedway will host the 2019 South Point 400 on Sunday night with the green flag dropping at 7 p.m. ET in a race that marks the beginning of the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs. Kyle Busch leads the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series standings after 26 races thanks to four wins and an impressive 21 top-10 finishes. He’s also the favorite to win on Sunday at 9-2 in the latest 2019 South Point 400 odds. However, Brad Keselowski finished second in Las Vegas earlier this year and won the night race in the desert to start last season’s playoffs. He’s listed at 5-1 with Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick just behind at 6-1 in the NASCAR at Las Vegas odds. But before you make your NASCAR at Las Vegas predictions, be sure to check out the 2019 South Point 400 picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model has crushed its NASCAR picks this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.’s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch’s huge win in the first race at Pocono. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Las Vegas Motor Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Las Vegas 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Las Vegas, we can tell you the model is high on Kyle Larson, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 12-1 odds. Larson was riding a streak of five consecutive top-10 finishes into Indianapolis last weekend and led the Brickyard 400 for five laps before a crash ended his night and left him with a 33rd-place finish.

However, the California native should be poised to bounce back in Las Vegas given his history on the 1.5-mile oval. Larson finished second, third and second at Las Vegas in the three races run there in 2017 and 2018.

He also finished a respectable 12th at Las Vegas in the first race run there this season, which was the first race run with NASCAR’s new aerodynamics package at tracks between 1-2 miles. He’s had time to dial in his setup at these tracks since and finished second in Chicago and fourth in Kentucky in the last two races on 1.5-mile ovals.

And a massive shocker: Brad Keselowski, one of the Vegas favorites at 5-1, fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in a loaded lineup. Keselowski finished the regular season with an extremely disappointing run at the 2019 Brickyard 400, going home with a DNF after just 48 laps and finishing in 38th place. That kept Keselowski in sixth place entering the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs and now he’ll have to quickly regather himself to ensure that he gets off to a good start under the lights on Saturday. 

Since switching to Ford in 2013, Keselowski has been a machine at Las Vegas, but this will only be his second run here since NASCAR altered their aerodynamics package to keep racing closer at 1-2 mile tracks and it hasn’t always been smooth-sailing for Keselowski this season at 1.5-mile venues. Keselowski finished 20th at Kentucky, 19th at Charlotte and 36th at Texas this year.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Las Vegas odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You absolutely need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2019 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 South Point 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 9-2
Brad Keselowski 5-1
Kevin Harvick 6-1
Joey Logano 6-1
Martin Truex Jr. 8-1
Denny Hamlin 8-1
Kyle Larson 12-1
Erik Jones 12-1
Kurt Busch 16-1
Chase Elliott 18-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
William Byron 30-1
Clint Bowyer 40-1
Jimmie Johnson 40-1
Aric Almirola 80-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1
Ryan Newman 100-1

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